The long term shift in concentration of employment growth in the service-producing sector from the goods producing sector of the economy is projected to continue. The service producing industries are projected to account for 96 percent of the increase in total employment, adding 14.6 million jobs. Professional and business services (4.2 million) and health care and social assistance (4.0 million) are expected to have the largest employment growth.
Virtually no growth is expected with goods producing employment as a whole. Declines in manufacturing (-1.2 million) and mining (-104,000) will offset the projected growth in the construction industry which is expected to add 1.3 million jobs. By 2018, the goods-producing sector is expected to account for 12.9 percent of total jobs, down from 17.3 percent in 1998 and 14.2 percent in 2008.
Three of the detailed industries projected to have the most employment growth are in professional and business services: management, scientific, and technical consulting; computer systems design; and employment services. Altogether, these 3 industries are expected to add 2.1 million jobs. Four of the top 10 gainers are in health care and social assistance industries. Employment in offices of physicians, home health care, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, and nursing care facilities is expected to grow by 2.0 million.
Of the 10 detailed industries with the largest projected employment declines, 4 are in the manufacturing sector and 2 each are within retail trade and information. The largest decline among the detailed industries is expected to be in department stores, with a loss of 159,000 jobs, followed by manufacturers of semiconductors (-146,000) and motor vehicle parts (-101,000).
